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Colchester Public
Schools Enrollment
Projected to 2032
Peter M. Prowda, PhD
28 Old Mill Court
Simsbury, CT 06070
(860) 716-7971
peteprowda@yahoo.com
January 27, 2023
Table of Contents
Introduction.................................................................................................................................................... 1
Perspective.................................................................................................................................................... 1
Current Enrollment ........................................................................................................................................ 2
Projection Method ......................................................................................................................................... 3
Total Enrollment ............................................................................................................................................ 5
Colchester Elementary School Enrollment ................................................................................................... 6
Jack Jackter School Enrollment .................................................................................................................... 7
William J. Johnson Middle School Enrollment .............................................................................................. 8
Bacon Academy Enrollment .......................................................................................................................... 9
Factors Affecting the Projection .................................................................................................................. 10
Context of the Projection ............................................................................................................................. 13
Prior Projections of Enrollment ................................................................................................................... 18
Summary ..................................................................................................................................................... 19
Appendices ................................................................................................................................................. 20
List of Tables
1. 2022 Enrollment ..................................................................................................................................... 2
2. Total Enrollment .................................................................................................................................... 5
3. Colchester Elementary School Enrollment ............................................................................................ 6
4. Jack Jackter School Enrollment ............................................................................................................. 7
5. William J. Johnson Middle School Enrollment ....................................................................................... 8
6. Bacon Academy Enrollment ................................................................................................................... 9
7. Analysis of Kindergarten Enrollment .................................................................................................... 11
ii
List of Figures
1. Colchester Enrollment 1970 to Date ...................................................................................................... 2
2. Schools Attended by Town Residents, 2022 ......................................................................................... 2
3. Enrollment by Grade, 2022 .................................................................................................................... 3
4. Total Enrollment ..................................................................................................................................... 5
5. Colchester Elementary School Enrollment ............................................................................................ 6
6. Jack Jackter School Enrollment ............................................................................................................. 7
7. William J. Johnson Middle School Enrollment ....................................................................................... 8
8. Bacon Academy Enrollment ................................................................................................................... 9
9. Births since 1980 .................................................................................................................................. 10
10. Kindergarten Yield from Birth Cohort ................................................................................................... 10
11. Grade-to-Grade Growth Rates ............................................................................................................. 12
12. Town Population Growth 2010 to 2020................................................................................................ 13
13. Projected Colchester Population Ages 0-19 ........................................................................................ 13
14. Colchester Women of Child-Bearing Age ............................................................................................ 14
15. Recent Changes in the Labor Force .................................................................................................... 14
16. Net New Housing Units ........................................................................................................................ 14
17. Sales of Existing Single-Family Homes and Condominiums ............................................................... 15
18. Repeaters of Grade 9........................................................................................................................... 15
19. Annual High School Dropout Rate ....................................................................................................... 15
20. Non-Public School Enrollment ............................................................................................................. 16
21. Residents Enrolled in Other Public Schools ........................................................................................ 16
22. Tuition Students attending Bacon Academy ........................................................................................ 16
23. Estimated Migration of Families with School-Age Children ................................................................ 17
24. Prior Projections of Enrollment ............................................................................................................ 18
List of Appendices
A. Colchester Enrollment Projected by Grade to 2032: Primary and Intermediate Grades ...................... 20
B. Colchester Enrollment Projected by Grade to 2032: Middle and High School Grades ......................... 21
iii
Introduction
This report presents a ten-year projection of enrollment for the Colchester Public Schools in grades PK-2,
3-5, 6-8 and 9-12. It is based on resident and non-resident students enrolled in Colchester schools. The
report includes 53 years of enrollment to place the projection into a wider historical perspective. One of
the primary drivers of future enrollment is births to residents. The report examines births and their
relationship to kindergarten enrollment. Several factors that influence school enrollment - town population,
women of child-bearing age, employment, housing, grade 9 retention, high school dropouts, non-public
enrollment, resident enrollment in other public schools, non-resident enrollment in Colchester schools and
migration - are presented. Finally, the accuracy of earlier projections is examined.
Enrollment projections are a valuable planning tool. For budgeting, the numbers can place requested
expenditures into a per pupil context. This can inform the public about which expenditures represent
continuing expenditures to support on-going programs and expenditures for school improvement and
program expansion. They are an essential step in determining the staffing that will be needed in the
future. This may facilitate the transfer of teachers from one grade to another or allow the hiring process to
start earlier, which can increase the likelihood of attracting the best teachers in the marketplace.
Projections are a critical and required step in planning for school facilities. The State of Connecticut
requires eight-year school-based projections as a critical component of determining the size of the project
for which reimbursement is eligible. This report is appropriate for that purpose for all of your schools. In
some communities the projection can determine the number of places they can make available to urban
students as part of a regional desegregation effort.
This projection was run after the Covid-19 pandemic, which had an impact mostly on elementary
enrollment. In projections I have run, I have observed a continued decline in non-public school
enrollment, a decline in births in 2020, an increase in births in 2021, a slight decrease in magnet school
enrollment, more families deciding to home-school their children and their return. Each town is a little
different. The trick is to observe the data and make a judgement which patterns are transient and adjust
the projection accordingly. A key assumption behind the method used in this report is that enrollment
patterns in the near future will be reflected in the patterns of the recent past. I have assumed that the
impact of the pandemic is now behind us. I have made what I feel are the best possible adjustments to
this unique situation.
Perspective
Enrollment projections typically use the most recent five years of data. While the most recent past is
viewed as the best predictor of the near future, it is informative to look at a broader perspective. Figure 1
shows the enrollment in Colchester from 1970 to date.
Enrollment in the Colchester Public Schools grew from 1,828 students in 1970 to 1,906 students in 1975.
Between then and 1981, enrollment went on a brief decline that took it to 1,483 students. In those six
years, enrollment declined by 423 students or 22.2 percent. Between 1981 and 2006 enrollment
increased by 1,759 students. The 3,242 students enrolled in 2006 was the all-time peak and represented
a huge 119 percent increase over the 1981 low. Enrollment then entered a second downward cycle.
Between 2006 and 2020 enrollment declined by 1,057 students or 32.6 percent. Enrollment may be in the
initial stage of a third growth cycle. The 2022 enrollment of 2,229 students is up 2.0 percent from the
2020 low.
Colchester's enrollment pattern is different from that of the state's public schools. Between its 1971 peak
and 1988, Connecticut public school enrollment declined by 31.5 percent. State enrollment hit a
secondary peak in 2004. It grew 24.5 percent between the 1988 low and 2004. State enrollment is still in
a downward cycle. It declined by 11.5 percent between 2004 and 2022. The 1970 to 1975 growth in
1
Colchester was steeper that the state's. The subsequent enrollment decline in Colchester was much
shorter in length than the state's and less deep. Colchester’s 1981 to 2006 growth period was much
longer than the state’s and very much greater in magnitude. Colchester's second cycle of decline has
been shorter than the state's but more severe. Had Colchester followed the state pattern of enrollment, it
would have had only 1,389 students enrolled in October of 2022 instead of your enrollment of 2,229.
Figure 1. Colchester Enrollment 1970 to Date
3500 3242
3000
2500 2,229
Enrollment
1906
2000 1828
1483
1500
1000
500
0
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
October of Year
Colchester State Pattern
Current Enrollment
Table 1 and Figure 2 provide a picture of where Colchester residents attended school on October 1,
2022. The data were provided by the Colchester Central Office to the Connecticut State Department of
Education. They are subject to minor changes. They show that 92.7 percent of Colchester's school-age
residents attended the Colchester Public Schools in October of 2022. Sixty-one school-age residents (2.6
percent) attended non-public schools in state. The number attending private schools out-of-state is
Table 1. 2022 Enrollment
Figure 2. Schools Attended by
Number Percent Town Residents, 2022
Residents
A. Colchester Public 2,198 92.7% Magnet
1.3% Tech+Ag
B. Magnet 30 1.3% Sci
C. Tech.+ Ag. Sci. 64 2.7% 2.7%
Town
Public
D. Other Public 11 0.5% Other
92.7%
Public
E. Non-Public 61 2.6%
0.5%
F. Home-Schooled 8 0.3% Non-Public
2.6%
Total (A+B+C+D+E) 2,372
Home-
G. Non-Residents 31 Schooled
0.3%
Total Enrollment (A+G) 2,229
2
not known. This figure includes five students paid by the district to attend a non-public special education
program. Thirty school-age residents attended charter or magnet schools (1.3 percent). Sixty-four
students (2.7 percent) attended a state technical high school or an agriculture science program.
Eleven students (0.5 percent) attended another public school, most in a special education program run by
a Regional Service Center. There were eight students the district recorded as being home-schooled (0.3
percent). There were 31 non-residents who attended Bacon Academy on a tuition basis in 2022. The
projections in this report are based upon the 2,229 residents and non-residents who attend the
Colchester Public Schools on October 1, 2022 (See “Total Enrollment” on the prior page).
Figure 3 shows the October 1, 2022 enrollment by grade of Colchester and tuitioned non-resident
(primarily Norwich) students in the Colchester Public Schools. The children in pre-kindergarten programs
are not shown. Grade 1 had the largest enrollment with 190 students. Kindergarten and grade 12 had
more than 170 Colchester residents enrolled. Grade 4 was the smallest class with only 138 students. No
other grade had less than 150 residents enrolled. If current conditions continue, this year's kindergarten
class of 174 students could have 177 students when it enters grade 3 at the Jack Jackter School in 2025,
180 students when it enters grade 6 at the William J. Johnson Middle School in 2028 and 173 resident
students when it enters grade 9 at Bacon Academy in 2031. All projected enrollments are above the
current enrollment in those grades. The current year enrollment by grade is the starting point for this
projection. How it moves forward is discussed below.
Figure 3. Enrollment By Grade, 2022
200
180 190
160 174 176
161 158 161 161
156 158 154 154
140 150
138
120
Enrollment
100
80
60
40
20
0
K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Grade
Colchester Non-Resident
Projection Method
The projections in this report were generated primarily using the cohort survival method. This is the
standard method used by people running enrollment projections. For the grades above kindergarten, I
compute grade-to-grade growth rates for ten years (see Appendices A and B). For example, if the number
of fourth graders this year is 143 and the number of third graders last year was 140, then the growth rate
is 1.021. Growth rates above 1.000 indicate that students moved in; transferred from non-public schools,
other public schools, or home-schooling; or were retained. Growth rates below 1.000 mean that students
3
moved out, transferred to private or other public schools, left to be home-schooled, dropped out, or were
not promoted from the prior grade. For each grade I calculated five different averages of the year-to-year
growth rates: a three-year average; a weighted three-year average; a three-year average from 2018,
2019 and 2022; a five-year average and ten-year median. I choose the average that seems to best fit the
data. The average growth rate for a grade is applied to the prior year’s enrollment from the prior grade.
The projection builds grade by grade and year by year.
The growth rates used in the projection in grades 1-5 were based on three-year averages of the observed
grade-to-grade growth in 2018, 2019 and 2022. This should eliminate the negative impact of Covid-19 on
enrollment in 2020 and the rebound in 2021. In grades 6-12 I felt comfortable using five-year averages
because Covid-19 had a lesser impact on older students.
In grade 9, I adjusted the annual growth rates in 2015 to 2022 to reflect residents only. I then assumed
ten students (the average over the past five years) from Norwich would enroll in grade 9 in 2023 and
annually thereafter. I projected enrollment using five-year averages of the grade-to-grade growth rates in
grades 10-12 for Colchester residents and non-residents combined.
I broke kindergarten into five-year-olds, six-year-olds entering kindergarten for the first time and
repeaters. Covid-19 deflated the five-year olds entering in 2020, inflated the number of six-year-olds
entering in 2021 and inflated the repeaters in 2021. Thus, I used the average of repeaters in 2018, 2019,
2020 and 2022, the average of kindergartners from births five-years prior from 2018, 2019, 2021 and
2022 and the average of kindergartners from births six-years prior from 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2022.
To extend the projections beyond four years, I needed to estimate births for the years 2023 to 2027. The
Connecticut State Department of Public Health recorded a provisional count of 173 births in 2021. That
was the most since 2005. I estimated 2022 births from in-state births through September, the five-year
pattern of October to December births relative to January to September births and the average out-of-
state births in 2020 and 2021. That approach resulted in an estimate of only 136 births in 2022. I used the
Connecticut State Data Center’s 2017 projections of women of child-bearing ages in 2020, 2025 and
2030 along with my estimate of the 2020 fertility rates for Colchester to estimate births in 2020, 2025 and
2030. I calculated annual growth rates for 2020 to 2025 and 2025 to 2030. In 2023 I applied the 2020 to
2025 growth rate to the average of births in 2020, 2021 and 2022. In subsequent years, I applied the
appropriate growth rate to the estimated prior year’s births.
Enrollment data from 2012 to 2022 were taken from files provided by the Connecticut State Department of
Education. Note that current district-level data on the Department's website may include special education
students educated outside of the district and exclude students in a Detention Center. These are recent
changes to the way the Department reports enrollment data. Projections require consistency. The data I have
chosen for this analysis exclude special education students educated outside of the district and may include
students in a Detention Center. Enrollment data can change daily until an audited final file is closed. This
process can take up to two years. Thus, it is possible that the enrollment data in this report could differ slightly
from data in earlier reports and that may have been reported by your Board of Education to the public. Births
from 1980 to 2022 were provided by the Healthcare Quality, Statistics, Analysis and Reporting Unit of the
State Department of Public Health.
4
Total Enrollment
Table 2 and Figure 4 present the observed total enrollment in Table 2. Total Enrollment
Colchester schools from 2012 to 2022 and projected enrollment Percent
through 2032. Detailed grade-by-grade data may be found in Year Students Change
Appendices A and B. Total enrollment in Colchester fell from 2,880 2012 2,880
2013 2,733 -5.1%
students in 2012 to 2,185 students in in 2020 and then rebounded to 2014 2,638 -3.5%
2,229 students in 2022. Enrollment plummeted by 651 students or 2015 2,551 -3.3%
22.6 percent between 2012 and 2022. Public-school enrollment 2016 2,426 -4.9%
statewide declined 7.4 percent in that period. 2017 2,438 0.5%
2018 2,311 -5.2%
2019 2,312 0.0%
Between 2012 and 2022, the enrollment loss of 22.6 percent in 2020 2,185 -5.5%
Colchester was in the third largest among similar (DRG D) towns in 2021 2,216 1.4%
2022 2,229 0.6%
the area. Only the 28.7 percent loss in Old Saybrook and the 24.7
2023 2,210 -0.9%
percent loss in Clinton were larger. Rocky Hill gained 3.4 percent. The 2024 2,231 1.0%
losses in Wethersfield (-1.5 percent), Cromwell (-2.4 percent), East 2025 2,240 0.4%
Hampton (-7.0 percent), Newington (-9.5 percent), Berlin (-10.6 2026 2,267 1.2%
2027 2,286 0.8%
percent), and East Lyme (-10.9 percent) were all smaller than 2028 2,312 1.1%
Colchester’s loss. 2029 2,340 1.2%
2030 2,365 1.1%
Although there may be a dip next October, I believe that the 2031 2,405 1.7%
2032 2,438 1.4%
enrollment decline is over. Next year, I anticipate that total enrollment
could decrease by 20 students. The projected October 2023 enrollment of 2,210 could be the ten-year
low. In October of 2032, enrollment could approach 2,440 students. That would be an increase of about
210 students (9.4 percent) from the October 2022 count and return enrollment to the count of 2017. In the
state's public schools, I am projecting a 3.7 percent decline between 2022 and 2032. Total enrollment in
Colchester could average close to 2,310 students over the ten-year projection period compared to an
average total enrollment of 2,404 students over the past ten years.
Figure 4. Total Enrollment
3,500
3,000 2,880
2,438
2,500 2,2292,210
Enrollment
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
October of Year
Actual Projected
5
Colchester Elementary School Enrollment
Table 3 and Figure 5 present actual enrollment at the Colchester Table 3. Colchester
Elementary School in October 2012 to 2022 and projected enrollment Elementary School
to 2032. Enrollment by grade may be found in Appendix A. Enrollment
Enrollment in grades PK-2 declined from 612 students in 2012 to 503 Percent
students in 2016 and then rebounded to 555 students in 2019. In Year Students Change
2020 it plunged to 498 and then rebounded strongly to 632 students 2012 612
in 2022. There were losses of ten percent or more in 2013, 2016 and 2013 551 -10.0%
2020. There was a 20.3 growth in 2021 enrollment. The 10-year gain 2014 542 -1.6%
of 20 students represented 3.3 percent of the enrollment in 2012. 2015 570 5.2%
2016 503 -11.8%
Public-school enrollment statewide in grades PK-2 declined 7.8
2017 543 8.0%
percent in that period. 2018 533 -1.8%
2019 555 4.1%
It appears that the decline in early elementary enrollment in 2020 498 -10.3%
Colchester is over. I project next October’s enrollment in grades PK-2 2021 599 20.3%
could be very slightly above this October. By 2032, PK-2 enrollment 2022 632 5.5%
2023 639 1.1%
at the Colchester Elementary School could be close to 660 students.
2024 638 -0.2%
This would be between the number enrolled in 2011 and 2012. This 2025 629 -1.4%
would be about 25 students more than 2022, a gain of 4.3 percent. In 2026 661 5.1%
grades PK-2 in the state's public schools, I am projecting a 2.0 2027 648 -2.0%
percent enrollment growth. Over the ten-year projection period, I 2028 660 1.9%
believe enrollment in grades PK-2 could average about 650 students 2029 640 -3.0%
compared to the average of 553 students observed over the past ten 2030 655 2.3%
2031 659 0.6%
years.
2032 659 0.0%
These figures include the children in your pre-kindergarten programs. Program enrollment ranged from 53
children in 2016 to 107 children in 2021. My projection model, based on births three- and four-years ago,
projects pre-kindergarten enrollment could range from 105 to 114 students over the next ten years.
Figure 5. Colchester Elementary School Enrollment
800
661 659
612 632 639 629
600
PK-2 Enrollment
498
400
200
0
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
October of Year
Actual Projected
6
Jack Jackter School Enrollment
Table 4 and Figure 6 present actual enrollment at the Jack Jackter Table 4. Jack Jackter
School from October, 2012 to 2022 and projected enrollment to 2032. School Enrollment
Enrollment by grade may be found in Appendix A. Enrollment at the
school fell irregularly from 630 students in 2012 to 436 students in Year Students Change
2021. October 2022 enrollment was 444 students. There were 2012 630
2013 614 -2.5%
declines of greater than five percent in 2015, 2016, 2018 and 2019.
2014 585 -4.7%
Between 2012 and 2022 enrollment declined by 186 students or 29.5
2015 531 -9.2%
percent. Enrollment in grades 3-5 declined 9.6 percent in that period 2016 498 -6.2%
in the state's public schools. 2017 513 3.0%
2018 482 -6.0%
I believe that enrollment in grades 3-5 at the Jack Jackter School is 2019 456 -5.4%
close to the bottom. Next October’s projected enrollment is the same 2020 445 -2.4%
2021 436 -2.0%
as October 2022 enrollment. I expect enrollment could once again
2022 444 1.8%
exceed 500 students in 2025. The ten-year peak is projected at 554
2023 444 0.0%
students in 2029. The projected 2032 enrollment of about 525 2024 497 11.9%
students would be similar to the count in 2015. Over the ten-years 2025 524 5.4%
from 2022 to 2032, I project a net increase of almost 85 students or 2026 528 0.8%
about 19 percent. Over the ten-year projection period, I believe 2027 522 -1.1%
enrollment in grades 3-5 could average about 520 students, the 2028 514 -1.5%
2029 554 7.8%
observed average over the past ten years. In the state's public
2030 534 -3.6%
schools, I project that enrollment in grades 3-5 will decline by 2.6 2031 545 2.1%
percent between 2022 and 2032. 2032 527 -3.3%
Figure 6. Jack Jackter School Enrollment
700
630
600 554
527
3-5 Enrollment
500
436 444 444
400
300
200
100
0
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
October of Year
Actual Projected
7
William J. Johnson Middle School Enrollment
Table 5 and Figure 7 present actual enrollment in grades 6-8 in Table 5. William J.
October, 2012 to 2022 and projected enrollment at the William J. Johnson Middle School
Johnson Middle School to 2032. Enrollment by grade may be found in Enrollment
Appendix B. The school’s enrollment fell from 701 students in 2012 to Grades
477 in 2022. That was a loss of 224 students or 32.0 percent. The last Year 6-8 Change
time enrollment in these grades was near that level was 1993. There 2012 701
were losses of more than five percent in 2014, 2017 and 2018. Public- 2013 668 -4.7%
school enrollment in Connecticut fell 9.0 percent in those grades in 2014 625 -6.4%
2015 600 -4.0%
those 10 years.
2016 605 0.8%
2017 571 -5.6%
I expect that enrollment at the William J. Johnson Middle School will 2018 520 -8.9%
drift downward for the next four years and then recover. All the 2019 517 -0.6%
students who will attend these grades over the next ten years school 2020 501 -3.1%
have already been born. Next October, I anticipate that enrollment in 2021 478 -4.6%
grades 6-8 will be the same as October 2022. I expect the enrollment 2022 477 -0.2%
2023 477 0.0%
low will come in 2025 or 2026 at about 455 students. Pushed, in part,
2024 462 -3.1%
by a huge increase in 2027, I believe enrollment could be close to 570 2025 456 -1.3%
students at the projection’s end. Over the ten-years, I project about a 2026 456 0.0%
19 percent-gain. Over the ten-year projection period, I believe 2027 511 12.1%
enrollment in grades 6-8 at the Middle School could average about 2028 539 5.5%
510 students compared to the average of 556 students in grades 6-8 2029 543 0.7%
2030 536 -1.3%
observed over the past ten years. In the state's public schools, I
2031 528 -1.5%
project that enrollment in grades 6-8 will decline by 5.8 percent in the
2032 569 7.8%
next ten years.
Figure 7. William J. Johnson Middle School
Enrollment
800
701
600 569
6-8 Enrollment
477 477 456
400
200
0
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
October of Year
Actual Projected
8
Bacon Academy Enrollment
Grade 9 is the first opportunity to attend state technical high schools Table 6. Bacon Academy
and agriculture science and technology centers. October 2022 data Enrollment
show that 83.9 percent of Colchester residents enrolled in grade 9 Percent
were enrolled in the district. Ten students (5.2 percent) were Year Students Change
enrolled in non-public schools in state. Twenty 9th graders (10.4 2012 937
2013 900 -3.9%
percent) were enrolled in a technical high school or an agriculture
2014 886 -1.6%
science program. There was one 9th grade student (0.5 percent) 2015 850 -4.1%
enrolled in an area magnet school and none in another public 2016 820 -3.5%
school. 2017 811 -1.1%
2018 776 -4.3%
Table 6 and Figure 8 present resident and non-resident enrollment 2019 784 1.0%
at the Bacon Academy. Grade-by-grade enrollment may be found in 2020 741 -5.5%
2021 703 -5.1%
Appendix B. Enrollment fell from 937 students in 2012 to 676
2022 676 -3.8%
students in 2022. This decline came after a 25-year period of 2023 650 -3.8%
enrollment growth that ended in 2009. Between 2012 and 2022, 2024 634 -2.5%
grade 9-12 enrollment decreased by 261 students or 27.9 percent. 2025 631 -0.5%
Statewide public-school enrollment in grades 9-12 fell 4.2 percent in 2026 622 -1.4%
that ten-year period. 2027 605 -2.7%
2028 599 -1.0%
2029 603 0.7%
I expect that next October’s enrollment at Bacon Academy will be 2030 640 6.1%
about 25 students less than October, 2022. I expect an enrollment 2031 673 5.2%
low of about 600 students in 2028. At the projection’s end, I expect 2032 683 1.5%
enrollment could approach 685 students. The 2032 count would be
about 10 students, one percent, above the October 2022 count. Statewide, I have projected a 7.2 percent
decline in public school grade 9-12 enrollment between 2022 and 2032. I believe enrollment at the high
school could average 635 students over the next ten years compared to the average of 795 students
observed over the past ten years.
Figure 8. Bacon Academy Enrollment
1200
1000 937
800
676 683
Enrollment
650
603
600
400
200
0
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
October of Year
Actual Projected
9
Factors Affecting the Projection
The primary reasons for elementary enrollment change lie in the births, the yield from the birth cohort and
grade-to-grade migration. Figure 9 presents the actual and provisional births from 1980 to 2021¸ and
estimated births from 2022 to 2027. Births ranged from a high of 245 in 1990 to a low of 111 in 2013. There
were 173 births recorded in 2021, the most recent provisional count. The preliminary 2022 count was down to
136 births. From 2000 to 2009, there was an average of 186 births annually. In the five years from 2013 to
2017, this fall’s kindergarten through 4th graders, births averaged 135. Births in the 2018 through 2022 period
will average close to 148. The projection in years 2027 to 2032 assumes an average of 153 births annually
between 2023 and 2027. This was based on the Connecticut State Data Center’s 2017 projection of
Colchester women of child-bearing ages and my estimate of 2020 fertility rates in Colchester.
Figure 9. Births Since 1980
245
250
200
Number of Births
173
Actual
150
Projected
111
100
50
0
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26
Calendar Year
Figure 10 depicts the kindergarten
yield five and six years after the birth Figure 10. Kindergarten Yield From Birth
year from 2007 to 2017 for Cohort
Colchester residents attending 116%116%113%116%116%
120% 114% 106%
kindergarten in the Colchester Public 104%
99%
Schools. The dark blue indicates the 100% 94% 91%
birth cohorts affected by full-day
80%
kindergarten, which started in 2013.
Yield
There were 161 births in 2016 and 60%
167 children enrolled in Colchester
40%
kindergarten at age five in 2021 and
an additional 19 who first enrolled in 20%
kindergarten at age six in 2022. That 0%
was a yield of 116 percent. The yield 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
from the birth cohort ranged from a Birth Year
low of 91 percent in 2011 to a high of
10
116 percent in three different years. The estimated yield in 2017 was 116 percent. That yield is an
estimate because we will not know the number of students that will first enter as six-year-olds until
October, 2023. Yields above 100 percent generally mean that parents who give birth elsewhere move into
town before their child enters kindergarten. In the look-back period of the projection, the yield was 116
percent; the median since full-day kindergarten started was 113 percent.
Table 7 gives a history of enrollment in kindergarten since 2012 and relates the components of
kindergarten enrollment back to the appropriate birth cohort. Retention is tied to the prior year's
kindergarten enrollment. I estimated kindergarten enrollment using the average from 2018, 19, 20 and 22
to estimate future retention, the average from 2018, 19, 21 and 22 to estimate future enrollment from
births five-years prior and the average from 2018, 19, 20 and 22 to estimate future enrollment from births
six-years prior. Covid-19 impacted retention in 2021, enrollment from births five-years prior in 2020 and
enrollment from births six-years prior in 2021. Thus, I projected future kindergarten enrollment from 103.5
percent of births five years ago, 12.1 percent of births six years ago, and 2.5 percent of current
kindergarten students retained.
Table 7. Analysis of Kindergarten Enrollment
Re- Yield Yield Total
tained - - - - Non-Retained - - - - From From Yield
from Born 5-Years Prior Born Births Births From
Birth Prior Colchester Non- 6 Yrs. Percent 5-Yrs 6-Yrs Birth
Year Year Births K Year Resident Resident Prior Retained Prior Prior Cohort
2012 2007 147 170 5 148 0 17 2.8% 100.7% 10.1% 113.6%
2013 2008 144 158 6 133 0 19 3.5% 92.4% 12.9% 104.2%
2014 2009 164 162 2 143 0 17 1.3% 87.2% 11.8% 99.4%
2015 2010 151 147 1 125 0 20 0.6% 82.8% 12.2% 94.0%
2016 2011 139 138 8 113 0 17 5.4% 81.3% 11.3% 91.4%
2017 2012 140 155 7 134 0 14 5.1% 95.7% 10.1% 106.4%
2018 2013 111 127 2 114 0 15 1.3% 102.7% 10.7% 116.2%
2019 2014 133 158 6 137 0 15 4.7% 103.0% 13.5% 115.8%
2020 2015 127 142 3 122 0 17 1.9% 96.1% 12.8% 113.4%
2021 2016 161 199 10 167 0 22 7.0% 103.7% 17.3% 115.5%
2022 2017 144 174 5 150 0 19 2.5% 104.2% 11.8% 116.3%
3-Year Average 3.6% 101.6% 13.8% 115.1%
5-Year Average 3.3% 102.1% 13.1% 115.4%
Covid-19 Adjusted 2.5% 103.5% 12.1% 115.6%
9-Year Median 2.5% 96.1% 11.8% 113.4%
The correlation between births and kindergarten enrollment five-year later was a high 0.94 over the 2005
to 2022 period. If this relationship were used to predict kindergarten enrollment, the estimate would have
been off by an average of 10 children annually over the past ten years. The cohort survival method, with
my breakout into five-year olds, six-year-old delayed entrants and children retained, can reasonably
project kindergarten enrollment from earlier births in your town.
The “Connecticut Early Childhood Report on Changing the Kindergarten Date,” mandated by Public Act
14-39, recommended that the start date for kindergarten be moved back to October 1st phased in one
month increments over the course of three years. It further recommended the elimination of the section of
C.G.S Sec. 10-184 which allows parents the option of not enrolling their age-eligible child. Funds for the
implementation have not yet been made available by the General Assembly. This common-sense change
has yet to be implemented. If implemented, the changes will very slightly decrease the size of your
11
kindergarten class for three years and increase your pre-kindergarten enrollment. This change is not built
into this projection, but will be built into future projections.
Figure 11 gives a perspective of the grade-to-grade growth rates for resident students attending the
Colchester schools. An "x" indicates the average growth rate used in the projection. The diamond is the
growth observed between last year and this year. The upper line indicates the largest growth rate
observed over the past ten years and the lower line, the smallest. For example, in grade 2 the projection
used a growth multiplier of 1.032 over the prior year’s 1st grade enrollment. Over the past ten years, the
rate ranged from a low of 0.976 to a high of 1.078. In general, the narrower the gap between the two lines
is, the greater the accuracy of the projection. The K-5 growth rates used in the projection were based on
the averages of the observed grade-to-grade growth from 2018, 19, and 22 with no adjustment for
students home-schooled. The high school growth rates were based on five-year averages. The Grade 9
rates are for residents only.
Figure 11. Grade-to-Grade Growth Rates
1.15
1.10
2022
1.05
High
Rate
1.00
Low
0.95 Projection
0.90
0.85
0.80
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Grade Moving Into
Most model growth rates were in the middle to the upper end of the ten-year range. Grades 1 and 11
were the exceptions. The 2022 rates were well above the projection growth rates in grades 3 ,4 and 6 and
7 and well below in grades 1 and 10. The 2022 rates set ten-year highs in grades 6 and 7 and a ten-year
low in grade 10. Four of the eight elementary growth rates are above 1.000, indicating a balance between
in- and out-migration. The low rate in grade 9 reflects other opportunities such as technical high schools
and agriscience programs. The low rate in grade 11 usually reflects drop-outs. The model growth rates in
grades 2-12 averaged 0.993. The comparable rate for 2022 was 1.006. The 20-year median of those
annual grade-to-grade rates was 0.998
12
Context of the Projection
The cohort-survival method typically needs only births and a few years of recent enrollment data to
generate a projection. Mathematically, nothing else matters. But enrollment changes do not occur in a
vacuum. Events and policies in the district, community and region all have some bearing on enrollment.
Remember that a basic assumption of the cohort-survival method is that the recent past can be a good
predictor of the near future. It is incumbent for every receiver of a projection to determine what events
happened in the past few years and whether they are likely to change.
To assist in this endeavor, this report examines several factors that could affect enrollment: town
population; women of child-bearing age; the labor force; new home construction; sales of existing homes;
grade 9 retention; high school dropout rate; non-public enrollment; non-resident enrollment in Colchester
schools; resident enrollment in other public schools and migration of families with school-age children.
Figure 12 presents the US Census
Bureau’s growth for Colchester between Figure 12. Town Population
April, 2010 and 2020. In that period, the Growth, 2010 to 2020
population declined by 513 people. 1.5%
Colchester’s population loss of 3.19 percent 0.89%
1.0% 0.69%
ranked it 119th in the state. In contrast, New
Estimated Growth
0.5%
London County fell by 2.01 percent, the 0.0%
state grew by 0.89 percent and -0.5% Colchester State New DRG D
communities with similar economic and London
-1.0% Cnty
need characteristics (DRG D) grew by 0.69 -1.5%
percent. The Bureau estimates that -2.0%
Colchester’s population grew 0.14 percent -2.01%
-2.5%
between July 2020 and July 2021. That -3.0%
growth ranked 75th in the state. The state -3.5% -3.19%
grew by 0.15 percent, New London County
grew by 0.21 percent and similar
communities (DRG D) grew by 0.26
percent.
Figure 13 presents the Connecticut State
Data Center’s 2017 population projections Figure 13. Projected Colchester
for Colchester residents 0-19 years of age Population Ages 0-19
in the years 2020, 2025 and 2030. They 1200
projected that the population ages 0-4
Number of Children
1000
would increase 15.6 percent between 2020
and 2030. They also projected the 800 2020
population ages 5-9 would fall from 824 in 600 2025
2020 to 790 (-4.1 percent) in 2030 and then 2030
400
rebound to 864 in 2030. They projected that
number of children ages 10-14 would 200
decline sharply from 1,011 in 2020 to 840 (- 0
16.9 percent) in 2030. The number of youth 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19
ages 15-19 was projected to decline from Age Group
1,136 in 2020 to 804 in 2030 (-29.2
percent). This independent projection
forecasts a steeper decline than the
projection in this report.
13
Figure 14 presents the Connecticut State
Data Center’s 2017 projections of the Figure 14. Colchester Women of
number of women of child-bearing age in Child-Bearing Age
Colchester from 2015 to 2025. The Center 700
projected a 3.6 percent decline in the 600
Number of Women
number of Colchester women ages 15-44 500 2015
between 2020 and 2025. However, in
400 2020
communities like yours, 30-34-year-old 2025
300
women have the highest rate of births. The
Center projected that the number of women 200
in that group would grow from 443 in 2022 100
to 464 (+9.2 percent) in 2025. The second 0
highest birth rate in communities like 15 to 20 to 25 to 30 to 35 to 40 to
Colchester is women ages 25-29. The 19 24 29 34 39 44
Age Group
Center projected that the number in that
age range would grow from 434 in 2020 to
464 (+6.9 percent) in 2025.
Figure 15 examines the number of people
in the labor force from the US Department Figure 15. Recent Changes in the
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. These Labor Force
9655
are people 16 years of age or older who 10000 9485 9264 9090
were working or actively were seeking
employment. The Colchester labor force 8000
Number
decreased between 2011 and 2013 and 6000
then rebounded through 2019. Covid-19
dropped the labor force to below the 2011 4000
count in 2021. Between 2011 and 2021, the
2000
net decrease was 4.2 percent. This was
worse than the state (-3.1 percent) but 0
better than New London County (-9.5 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
percent). Colchester’s unemployment rate
Calendar Year
of 4.8 percent in 2021 was 1.3 percentage
points lower than 2020. It is better than the
state rate of 6.3 percent and the New
London County rate of 6.9 percent.
Figure 16 presents the net new housing Figure 16. Net New Housing Units
permits issued from 2011 to 2021 from the
70 63
State Department of Economic and
Community Development. In the past ten 60
years the number of net (of demolitions) 50
New Units
new housing permits issued in Colchester 40 34
ranged from a low of 12 in 2019 to a high of 29 30 31
28
30 25
63 in 2016. There were 17 permits issued 18 17 17
in 2021. In the 2018-2021 period, there was 20 12
an average of 19 net new housing permits 10
issued. 0
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Calendar Year
14
Figure 17 presents my estimate of the
number of sales of existing single-family Figure 17. Sales of Existing
homes and condominiums. I derived it by Single-Family Homes and
taking the number of appropriate sales from Condominiums
The Warren Group/Commercial Record and 250 226
204 199 193 206 202
subtracting the number of new single-family 200 183 187
housing units authorized the prior year. The 153
Sales
estimated number of sales of existing 150 117
106
homes ranged from a low of 106 in 2012 to 100
a high of 226 in 2021 From sales through
November, I estimate there will be 202 50
sales in 2022. In the 2018-2022 period, 0
there was an average of 203 sales 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
annually. Calendar Year
Figure 18 presents the percentage of grade
9 students who were classified as 9th Figure 18. Repeaters of Grade 9
graders for a second year. Colchester
12%
appears to have revised the number of 10.5%
9.8%
credits needed to be considered a 10th
Percent Repeating
grade student in the 2017-18 school year. 9% 8.2%
Over the past six years the percentage of
students classified as 9th graders for a 6%
4.6%
second year grew from 1.0 percent in 2017
to 10.5 percent in 2020 and was 9.8 3%
2.5%
percent in 2022. Over the past five years, 1.0%
the enrollment in grade 9 was inflated by 13 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
0%
students and the enrollment in 10th grade 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
was deflated by that figure. Between 2018
October of Year
and 2022 an average 7.0 percent of 9th
graders were classified in the grade for a
second year.
Figure 19 shows the annual percentage of
dropouts from grades 9-12 for the 2011-12 Figure 19. Annual High School
to 2021-22 school years. The data were Dropout Rate
obtained from the Connecticut State 4.0%
Percentage Drop-Outs
Department of Education and the
Colchester Central Office. Dropouts are 3.0%
2.4%
students who left school early, left to enroll
in a GED program, transfer to post- 2.0%
secondary education prior to graduation or 1.1%
moved but not known to be continuing. 1.0% 0.6%0.7% 0.7% 0.9%
Over the five years between 2018 and 0.4%0.6%0.6%
0.1%0.1%
2022, the average rate was 0.9 percent.
0.0%
The high 2021 rate was due, in part, to 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
students’ failure to maintain an on-line
presence. School Year Ending June 30
15
Figure 20 presents the non-public
enrollment over the past ten years for Figure 20. Non-Public School
students from the town of Colchester. The Enrollment
150
data are from the records of the 131
Connecticut State Department of 125
Education. Non-public enrollment declined
Enrollment
100
from 141 students in 2012 to 57 students in
2021 and then rebounded to 61 in 2022. In 75
57 61
the past ten years, enrollment in the non-
50
public schools declined by 70 students or
about 53 percent. The 2022 non-public 25
enrollment represented 2.6 percent of all
0
students from Colchester. Ten years ago, 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
the figure was 4.2 percent. I project that
non-public enrollment from Colchester will October of School Year
be about 65 students in 2023.
Figure 21 presents the enrollment of
Colchester residents in other public schools Figure 21. Residents Enrolled in
in Connecticut from October, 2012 to 2022. Other Public Schools
The number educated out-of-district rose 200 190 198
170 166
from 118 in 2012 to 198 in 2016 and then 175
154
164
147
plummeted to 105 in 2022. The number 150 129 123
Residents
118
enrolled in magnet or charter schools rose 125 105
from 55 students in 2012 to 118 in 2016 100
75
and then fell to 30 in 2022. In 2022, 30
50
students attended a magnet or charter
25
school, 15 attended the agriculture science
0
program at Lyman Memorial High, 49 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
attended a State Technical High School, October of Year
and 11 attended a special education
Magnet Tech+Ag Other
program run by a RESC or another public-
school district.
Figure 22 presents the number of non-
residents, most from Norwich, who Figure 22. Tuition Students
attended Bacon Academy on a tuition Attending Bacon Academy
35 33
basis. The option started with eight 31
students enrolled in 2016. The number 30 28
25 26
grew to 33 in 2021 and was 31 in 2022.
Enrollment
25
These students represented 4.6 percent of 20
20
the Bacon Academy enrollment in 2022.
The projection assumes ten non-residents 15
will enroll in Colchester grade 9 annually. 10 8
Over the next ten years, these tuition 5 1 1 0
students from Norwich are projected to 0
average 4.9 percent of Bacon Academy 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
enrollment. October of Year
16
Figure 23 presents my estimate of the
migration of families with school-age Figure 23. Estimated Migration of
children. I based it on Colchester resident Families with School-Age Children
enrollment in grades 1-8 in all public and 3.0%
non-public schools in Connecticut. The
Estimated Migration
2.0% 1.7%
estimate in 2020 and 2021 was adjusted for 1.2%
students withdrawing to become home- 1.0% 0.4% 0.4%0.7%0.5%
0.4%
schooled. Estimated family migration 0.0%
ranged from a low of -1.5 percent in 2018 to 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
a high of +1.7 percent in 2022. In the 2018, -1.0% -0.5%
-1.0%-1.3%
19 and 22, there was an average family -2.0% -1.5%
migration of +0.5 percent. The median over
the past 10 years was +0.4 percent. -3.0%
October of Year
17
Prior Projections of Enrollment
The cohort-survival projection method works by moving forward the pattern of recent events that are subsumed
within the grade-by-grade enrollment. This works very well when communities are stable. One way to know if
that assumption is valid is to examine how past projections have fared. Figure 24 presents the enrollment
projections that I have run for Colchester since 2017. The five enrollment projections that I did between 2012
and 2021 had one-year error rates that averaged 2.0 percent. The one projection done between 2012 and 2017
had a five-year error rate of 2.4 percent, which is 0.5 percent annualized.
Last year’s projection is running 1.3 percent low. In that analysis, I projected that K-2 enrollment would be 543
students in 2022. The actual enrollment of 525 was 18 students less than projected. The projection was high by
3.4 percent. I projected that enrollment in grades 3-5 would be 436 students in 2022. The actual enrollment of
444 was eight students more than projected. The projection was low by 1.8 percent. I projected that this year’s
enrollment at William J. Johnson Middle School would be 465 students. The actual enrollment of 477 was 12
students more than projected. The projection was low by 2.5 percent. I projected that this fall’s high school
enrollment would be 662 students. The actual enrollment of 676 was 14 students more than projected. The
projection was low by 2.1 percent. The 2021 projection expected a pre-kindergarten enrollment of 95 children.
There were 107 enrolled in 2022.
Figure 24. Prior Projections of Enrollment
3000
2800
Actual
2017
Enrollment
2600
2018
2019
2400
2020
2200 2021
2022
2000
1800
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
October of Year
Over the past forty years, I have found the cohort-survival method provides estimates that are sufficiently
accurate for intermediate-range policy planning. The eight-year planning horizon for school construction grants
is at the limit of the useful accuracy of the method. The method usually does not attempt to predict the future. Its
key assumption is that the near future will be like the recent past. For example, projections done in the late
2000s did not anticipate the recession of 2012. Some policy changes such as kindergarten retention, drop-out
prevention programs and the number of credits to be considered a 10th grader can be built into a new projection.
It is incumbent upon the receiver of a projection to identify planned changes so that they can be built into a
projection.
18
Summary
I project that total enrollment in 2032 could grow by almost 210 students, an increase of 9.4 percent over 2022.
That would bring total enrollment to about 2,440 students. I project that Colchester Elementary School
enrollment could move upward from 632 students in 2022 to 660 students in 2032. This would be about a 30-
student gain, a growth over four percent. I expect the Jack Jackter School enrollment could increase from 444
students in 2022 to about 530 students in 2032. I believe that future enrollment at the William J. Johnson Middle
School could decline to about 455 students somewhere between 2025 and 2026 and be close to 570 students in
2032. That would be over a 19 percent increase over 2022. The peak enrollment at Bacon Academy was 1,003
students in 2009. Between 2023 and 2028, enrollment at the Academy could fall from 676 students to about 600
students. By 2032, I anticipate it will be close to 680 students. That would represent a net gain of about five
students, an increase of one percent.
This report is projecting an increase in enrollment in grades K-8 and a slight decline in high school enrollments.
It is critical to remember that a projection is just a moving forward of recent trends. Are the past few years
reasonable to project forward? In the five years from 2013 to 2017 (this fall’s kindergarten through 4th graders)
births averaged 135. Births in the 2018 through 2022 period will average close to 148. My model assumes that
births in 2023 to 2027 will average 153. That alone should pull elementary enrollment upward. Covid-19
impacted kindergarten enrollment the most in 2020 and 2021. After several adjustments, I projected future
kindergarten from 103.5 percent of births five years prior, 12.1 percent of births six-years prior and 2.5 percent
of kindergartners retained. The average of the grade-to grade growth rates across grades 2-12 that I used to
grow future enrollment was 0.993. These projection multipliers averaged 1.006 in 2022; the median over the last
20 years was 0.998. Taking these three key factors into consideration, I believe the projection is realistic.
These projections are based upon several other assumptions revolving around the notion that the recent past is
a good predictor of the near future. The projection assumes that the following school policies will continue:
kindergarten will remain full-day; about 12 percent of parents will delay their child’s kindergarten entry until age
six; ten Norwich children will enroll in grade 9 annually, retention policies will not change; no expansion of
enrollment in area magnets and no change in the dropout rate or the recent change in the number of credits
required to move from grade 9 to 10. The projection assumes a migration of families with school-age children of
+0.5 percent; a very slight decline in non-public school enrollment; 19 new housing units will be constructed
annually; an average of 203 sales of existing single-family homes and condominiums and little change in the
labor force.
Obviously Covid-19 introduced some uncertainty into this projection. I assumed that the epidemic’s impact on
enrollment is now behind us. I did not adjust recent growth rates for students withdrawing to be home-schooled
and then returning. Rather I was selective in which rates I used. There is a lot more going on now than in my
standard projections. The change in the number of credits required to move from grade 9 to 10 is now pretty
much built into the high school’s projection. What isn’t built in is the possible impact of increased interest rates
on families with children being able to move into Colchester. A bit more caution than usual should be exercised
when using these projections to make policy decisions.
It is important to remember that the cohort survival method relies on observed data from the recent past. Its key
assumption is that those conditions will persist. It does not try to predict when the economic conditions might
change. We cannot know today how long these conditions will continue. This projection should be used as a
starting point for local planning. Examine the factors and assumptions underlying the method. You know your
community best. Apply your knowledge of the specific conditions in Colchester and then make adjustments as
necessary.
19
Appendix A. Colchester Enrollment Projected by Grade to 2032: Primary and
Intermediate Grades
October 1 Birth Total Total
of Year Year Births1 K 1 2 3 4 5 PK PK-2 3-5
2012 2007 147 170 171 195 222 198 210 76 612 630
2013 2008 144 158 164 170 196 220 198 59 551 614
2014 2009 164 162 161 160 168 200 217 59 542 585
2015 2010 151 147 171 161 163 165 203 91 570 531
2016 2011 139 138 141 171 170 162 166 53 503 498
2017 2012 140 155 144 152 174 170 169 92 543 513
2018 2013 111 127 160 149 151 161 170 97 533 482
2019 2014 133 158 128 165 142 154 160 104 555 456
2020 2015 127 142 144 131 159 142 144 81 498 445
2021 2016 161 199 156 147 136 155 145 97 599 436
2022 2017 144 174 190 161 150 138 156 107 632 444
Projected
2023 2018 135 161 173 196 159 147 138 109 639 444
2024 2019 159 185 160 179 194 156 147 114 638 497
2025 2020 138 167 184 165 177 191 156 113 629 524
2026 2021 173 200 166 190 163 174 191 105 661 528
2027 2022 136 167 199 171 188 160 174 111 648 522
2028 2023 151 177 166 205 169 185 160 112 660 514
2029 2024 153 181 176 171 203 166 185 112 640 554
2030 2025 153 181 180 182 169 199 166 112 655 534
2031 2026 153 181 180 186 180 166 199 112 659 545
2032 2027 153 181 180 186 184 177 166 112 659 527
Projection Growth Rates2
0.994 1.033 0.989 0.983 1.000 0.732
Annual Growth Rates
Migration3
2013 1.097 0.965 0.994 1.005 0.991 1.000 0.375 -0.30%
2014 0.988 1.019 0.976 0.988 1.020 0.986 0.407 0.00%
2015 0.974 1.056 1.000 1.019 0.982 1.015 0.652 0.26%
2016 0.993 0.959 1.000 1.056 0.994 1.006 0.422 0.96%
2017 1.107 1.043 1.078 1.018 1.000 1.043 0.754 0.27%
2018 1.144 1.032 1.035 0.993 0.925 1.000 0.746 -1.77%
2019 1.188 1.008 1.031 0.953 1.020 0.994 0.722 0.30%
2020 1.118 0.911 1.023 0.964 1.000 0.935 0.531 -3.29%
2021 1.236 1.099 1.021 1.038 0.975 1.021 0.695 -0.32%
2022 1.208 0.955 1.032 1.020 1.015 1.006 0.728 1.75%
3-Year Ave. 1.192 0.982 1.026 1.005 0.995 0.987 0.511
Weighted 3-Year 1.203 0.995 1.027 1.017 0.999 0.999 0.684
5-Year Ave. 1.183 0.996 1.029 0.992 0.984 0.991 0.496
10-Year Median 1.113 1.013 1.022 1.011 0.997 1.003 0.674
2018, 19, 22 1.183 0.994 1.033 0.989 0.983 1.000 0.682
1
2007-2021 births are from the State Department of Public Health. The 2021 count is provisional.
The 2022 births were based on in-state births through September. Births in 2023-2027 were based on the
Connecticut State Data Center’s 2017 projection of Colchester women of child-bearing ages and my estimate of
2020 fertility rates in Colchester.
2
Growth rates based on grade-to-grade rates from 2018, 19 and 22. Kindergarten based on the average of repeaters in
2018, 2019, 2020 and 2022, the average of kindergartners from births five-years prior from 2018, 2019, 2021 and 2022 and
the average of kindergartners from births six-years prior from 2018, 2019, 2010 and 2022.
3
Estimated by comparing the enrollment in grades 3-8 one year with the enrollment in grades 2-7 the prior year with an
adjustment for residents out and non-residents in.
20
Appendix B. Colchester Enrollment Projected by Grade to 2032: Middle and High
School Grades
October 1 6-8 9-12 District
of Year 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total Total Total
2012 229 245 227 205 221 248 263 701 937 2,880
2013 197 230 241 205 208 224 263 668 900 2,733
2014 198 195 232 226 210 213 237 625 886 2,638
2015 213 198 189 202 219 204 225 600 850 2,551
2016 188 216 201 187 199 220 214 605 820 2,426
2017 165 193 213 203 185 197 226 571 811 2,438
2018 167 164 189 197 209 174 196 520 776 2,311
2019 174 170 173 207 194 196 187 517 784 2,312
2020 165 168 168 172 199 179 191 501 741 2,185
2021 151 162 165 175 171 177 180 478 703 2,216
2022 158 158 161 173 163 162 178 477 676 2,229
Projected
2023 161 158 158 165 170 151 164 477 650 2,210
2024 143 161 158 162 162 158 152 462 634 2,231
2025 152 143 161 162 159 150 160 456 631 2,240
2026 161 152 143 165 159 147 151 456 622 2,267
2027 198 161 152 148 162 147 148 511 605 2,286
2028 180 198 161 156 145 150 148 539 599 2,312
2029 165 180 198 165 153 134 151 543 603 2,340
2030 191 165 180 201 162 142 135 536 640 2,365
2031 172 191 165 183 197 150 143 528 673 2,405
2032 206 172 191 169 180 183 151 569 683 2,438
Projection
Growth Rates 1.034 1.000 0.999 0.964 0.981 0.927 1.010
Annual Estimated
Growth Rates1 Migration2
2013 0.938 1.004 0.984 0.903 1.015 1.014 1.060 -0.30%
2014 1.000 0.990 1.009 0.938 1.024 1.024 1.058 0.00%
2015 0.982 1.000 0.969 0.871 0.969 0.971 1.056 0.26%
2016 0.926 1.014 1.015 0.952 0.985 1.005 1.049 0.96%
2017 0.994 1.027 0.986 0.950 0.989 0.990 1.027 0.27%
2018 0.988 0.994 0.979 0.887 1.030 0.941 0.995 -1.77%
2019 1.024 1.018 1.055 1.063 0.985 0.938 1.075 0.30%
2020 1.031 0.966 0.988 0.942 0.961 0.923 0.974 -3.29%
2021 1.049 0.982 0.982 0.958 0.994 0.889 1.006 -0.32%
2022 1.090 1.046 0.994 0.976 0.931 0.947 1.006 1.75%
3-Year Ave. 1.056 0.996 0.988 0.958 0.962 0.918 0.995
Weighted 3-Year 1.066 1.011 0.989 0.964 0.957 0.924 1.000
5-Year Ave. 1.034 1.000 0.999 0.964 0.981 0.927 1.010
10-Year Median 0.997 1.002 0.987 0.946 0.978 0.951 1.027
2018, 19, 22 1.031 1.019 1.008 0.972 0.984 0.942 1.024
1
Annual growth rates in grade 9 based on residents only. The projection assumes 10 non-residents
will enroll in grade 9 annually.
2
Estimated by comparing the enrollment in grades 3-8 one year with the enrollment in grades 2-7 the prior year with adjustments
for residents out and non-residents in.
21