Colchester Public Schools
Colchester, CT
School Year 2024-25 Enrollment Projection Report
Copyright, New England School Development Council, 2024
Table of Contents
Section Page
Enrollment Summary…..................................................................................................... 1
Historical Enrollment Table…........................................................................................... 2
Historical Enrollment Graph….......................................................................................... 3
Projected Enrollment Table…........................................................................................... 4
Projected Enrollment Graph….......................................................................................... 5
Historical & Projected Enrollment Graph…........................................................................ 6
Historical & Projected Enrollment in Grade Combinations Line Graph……........................... 7
Historical & Projected Enrollment in Grade Combinations Stacked Column Graph……........ 8
Birth to Kindergarten Relationship Graph…........................................................................ 9
Additional Information ….................................................................................................. 10
New England's PK-12 Enrollment Trends…........................................................................ 11
Projection Methodology and Reliability ….......…............................................................... 12
Enrollment Summary
NESDEC is pleased to send you this report displaying the past, present, and projected enrollments for your District. It is
important to update enrollment projections every year to identify changes in enrollment patterns. Ten-year projections are
designed to provide your District with yearly, up-to-date enrollment information that can be used by boards and
administrators for effective planning and allocation of resources. We received the enrollment data from the District, and we
assume that the method of collecting this data has been consistent from year to year.
Birth data informs Kindergarten enrollment. Each fall, NESDEC secures birth data from State sources, providing a snapshot
in time as to actual and provisional births as reported by the State, and then uses this birth data to predict Kindergarten
enrollments. We only use Fall birth data to assure consistency in reporting from year to year. Estimated births, which are an
average of the previous five years of birth data, are based on this same snapshot. NESDEC acknowledges the variability of
the provisional and the estimated birth data, and notes that the projected Kindergarten enrollments may serve as a guide to
future planning.
Enrollment projections are more reliable in Years #1-3 in the future. Projections four to ten years out may serve as a guide to
future enrollments and are useful for planning purposes. In light of this, NESDEC has added a “Spring Update Refresher”
enrollment projection at no cost to affiliates. For more information, please refer to the Projection Methodology and Reliability
section of this document.
The NESDEC enrollment projection fell within 68 students of the K-12 total, 2,060 students projected vs. 1,992 enrolled. One
variance of 48 students occurred at Kindergarten, 183 projected vs. 135 enrolled. This variance could be attributed to the
new CT New Entry Age for Kindergarten; continued monitoring is suggested.
Births increased by 13 from a previous ten-year average of 140 to a projected average of 153. In most districts, Grades 1-8
are very stable in enrollments. However, there have been increases in 6 of the 8 most recent years, leading to a net increase
averaging 8 students per year.
Over the next three years, Grades K-2 enrollments are projected to increase by 49 students, Grades 3-5 enrollments are
projected to decrease by 27 students, Grades 6-8 enrollments are projected to increase by 84 students, and Grades 9-12
enrollments are projected to decrease by 43 students, as students move through the grades.
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Historical Enrollment
School District: Colchester, CT 10/15/2024
Historical Enrollment By Grade
Birth School
Births* PK K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 UNGR K-12 PK-12
Year Year
2009 160 2014-15 60 162 161 160 168 201 217 199 198 231 226 210 215 246 0 2594 2654
2010 151 2015-16 92 147 170 160 163 165 203 212 197 190 201 220 207 226 0 2461 2553
2011 137 2016-17 99 138 141 171 170 162 166 189 215 201 189 198 221 212 0 2373 2472
2012 140 2017-18 92 155 144 152 174 171 170 166 194 213 207 186 197 231 0 2360 2452
2013 111 2018-19 97 127 160 149 151 161 171 168 164 190 197 213 175 198 0 2224 2321
2014 133 2019-20 104 158 128 165 142 155 161 175 171 173 208 194 198 190 0 2218 2322
2015 127 2020-21 81 142 144 131 159 142 145 166 169 169 172 199 179 195 0 2112 2193
2016 161 2021-22 97 199 156 147 136 155 145 151 162 165 175 171 177 180 0 2119 2216
2017 145 2022-23 106 174 190 161 150 138 156 158 159 162 174 163 165 179 0 2129 2235
2018 133 2023-24 98 149 175 184 169 150 143 152 158 160 147 172 135 152 0 2046 2144
2019 157 2024-25 94 135 148 179 184 174 151 147 144 160 148 133 156 133 17 2009 2103
*Birth data provided by Public Health Vital Records Departments in each state. ** < 10 Not reported, to protect subgroups with fewer than 10 students.
Historical Enrollment in Grade Combinations Historical Percentage Changes
School School
Year PK-5 K-5 PK-2 K-2 3-5 6-8 K-8 6-12 9-12 Year K-12 Diff. %
2014-15 1129 1069 543 483 586 628 1697 1525 897 2014-15 2594
2015-16 1100 1008 569 477 531 599 1607 1453 854 2015-16 2461 -133 -5.1%
2016-17 1047 948 549 450 498 605 1553 1425 820 2016-17 2373 -88 -3.6%
2017-18 1058 966 543 451 515 573 1539 1394 821 2017-18 2360 -13 -0.5%
2018-19 1016 919 533 436 483 522 1441 1305 783 2018-19 2224 -136 -5.8%
2019-20 1013 909 555 451 458 519 1428 1309 790 2019-20 2218 -6 -0.3%
2020-21 944 863 498 417 446 504 1367 1249 745 2020-21 2112 -106 -4.8%
2021-22 1035 938 599 502 436 478 1416 1181 703 2021-22 2119 7 0.3%
2022-23 1075 969 631 525 444 479 1448 1160 681 2022-23 2129 10 0.5%
2023-24 1068 970 606 508 462 470 1440 1076 606 2023-24 2046 -83 -3.9%
2024-25 1065 971 556 462 509 451 1422 1021 570 2024-25 2009 -37 -1.8%
Change -585 -22.6%
2
Grades K-12 Historical Enrollment
4000
3500
3000
2594
2461
2500 2373 2360
2224 2218
Enrollment
2112 2119 2129
2046 2009
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25
School Year
3
Projected Enrollment
School District: Colchester, CT 10/15/2024
Enrollment Projections By Grade*
School
Birth Year Births* PK K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 UNGR K-12 PK-12
Year
2019 157 0 2024-25 94 135 148 179 184 174 151 147 144 160 148 133 156 133 17 2009 2103
2020 139 0 2025-26 94 156 135 149 183 187 177 156 147 145 154 139 120 152 17 2017 2111
2021 173 (prov.) 2026-27 95 194 156 136 152 186 190 182 156 148 140 145 125 117 17 2044 2139
2022 143 (prov.) 2027-28 95 160 194 157 139 154 189 196 182 157 142 132 131 122 17 2072 2167
2023 152 (prov.) 2028-29 96 170 160 196 161 141 157 195 196 183 151 134 119 127 17 2107 2203
2024 153 (est.) 2029-30 96 171 170 161 201 163 143 162 195 197 176 142 121 116 17 2135 2231
2025 152 (est.) 2030-31 97 170 171 171 165 204 166 147 162 196 190 166 128 118 17 2171 2268
2026 155 (est.) 2031-32 97 173 170 172 175 167 207 171 147 163 189 179 149 124 17 2203 2300
2027 151 (est.) 2032-33 98 169 173 171 176 178 170 213 171 148 157 178 161 145 17 2227 2325
2028 152 (est.) 2033-34 98 171 169 174 175 179 181 175 213 172 142 148 160 157 17 2233 2331
2029 153 (est.) 2034-35 98 171 171 170 178 178 182 187 175 214 166 134 133 156 17 2232 2330
Note: Ungraded students (UNGR) often are high school students whose anticipated years of graduation are unknown, or students with special needs - UNGR not included in Grade Combinations for 7-12, 9-12, etc.
Based on an estimate of births Based on children already born Based on students already enrolled
*Birth data provided by Public Health Vital Records Departments in each state. ** < 10 Not reported, to protect subgroups with fewer than 10 students.
Projected Enrollment in Grade Combinations* Projected Percentage Changes
School School
PK-5 K-5 PK-2 K-2 3-5 6-8 K-8 6-12 9-12 K-12 Diff. %
Year Year
2024-25 1065 971 556 462 509 451 1422 1021 570 2024-25 2009
2025-26 1081 987 534 440 547 448 1435 1013 565 2025-26 2017 8 0.4%
2026-27 1109 1014 581 486 528 486 1500 1013 527 2026-27 2044 27 1.3%
2027-28 1088 993 606 511 482 535 1528 1062 527 2027-28 2072 28 1.4%
2028-29 1081 985 622 526 459 574 1559 1105 531 2028-29 2107 35 1.7%
2029-30 1105 1009 598 502 507 554 1563 1109 555 2029-30 2135 28 1.3%
2030-31 1144 1047 609 512 535 505 1552 1107 602 2030-31 2171 36 1.7%
2031-32 1161 1064 612 515 549 481 1545 1122 641 2031-32 2203 32 1.5%
2032-33 1135 1037 611 513 524 532 1569 1173 641 2032-33 2227 24 1.1%
2033-34 1147 1049 612 514 535 560 1609 1167 607 2033-34 2233 6 0.3%
2034-35 1148 1050 610 512 538 576 1626 1165 589 2034-35 2232 -1 0.0%
Change 223 11.1%
*Projections should be updated annually to reflect changes in in/out-migration of families, real estate sales, residential construction, births, and similar factors.
4
Grades K-12 Projected Enrollment
4000
3500
3000
2500
2171 2203 2227 2233 2232
2135
Enrollment
2044 2072 2107
2009 2017
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35
School Year
5
Enrollment
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
Historical
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
2023-24
6
2024-25
School Year
2025-26
2026-27
2027-28
2028-29
2029-30
2030-31
Projected
2031-32
2032-33
2033-34
Grades K-12 Historical & Projected Enrollment
2034-35
Enrollment
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
Historical
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
K-5
2023-24
7
6-8
School Year
2024-25
2025-26
9-12
2026-27
2027-28
2028-29
2029-30
2030-31
Projected
2031-32
2032-33
2033-34
Historical & Projected Enrollments in Grade Combinations
2034-35
Enrollment
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2014-15 1069 628 897
2015-16 1008 599 854
2016-17 948 605 820
2017-18 966 573 821
2018-19 919 522 783
2019-20 909 519 790
Historical
2020-21 863 504 745
2021-22 938 478 703
2022-23 969 479 681
K-5
2023-24 970 470 606
8
6-8
School Year
2024-25 971 451 570
9-12
2025-26 987 448 565
2026-27 1014 486 527
2027-28 993 535 527
2028-29 985 574 531
2029-30 1009 554 555
2030-31 1047 505 602
Projected
2031-32 1064 481 641
2032-33 1037 532 641
2033-34 1049 560 607
2034-35 1050 576 589
Historical & Projected Enrollments in Grade Combinations
Birth-to-Kindergarten Relationship
Births K Enrollment
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
B 2009 B 2010 B 2011 B 2012 B 2013 B 2014 B 2015 B 2016 B 2017 B 2018 B 2019
K 2014-15 K 2015-16 K 2016-17 K 2017-18 K 2018-19 K 2019-20 K 2020-21 K 2021-22 K 2022-23 K 2023-24 K 2024-25
Birth Year/ School Year
9
Additional Information
School 9-12 K-12 K-12 K-12 K-12 K-12
Year CTE Non-Public Choice-In Choice-Out Out District Homeschool
SPED
2020-21 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
2021-22 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
2022-23 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
2023-24 88 n/a 37 25 13 22
2024-25 62 26 30 25 27 26
* Data provided by District.
"n/a" signifies that information was not provided by District.
** < 10 Not reported, to protect subgroups with fewer than 10 students.
Building Permits Issued
Year Single-Family Multi-Units
2020 18 2
2021 18 2
2022 16 0
2023 14 0
2024 9 to date 0 to date
*Building permit data from HUD.
10
New England's PK-12 Enrollments Trends
From 2022 to 2031, the US Department of Education anticipates changes in PK-12 enrollment of -
1.8% in the South, -9.7% in the West, -5.0% in the Midwest, -9.1% in the Northeast, and a total of
-5.5% nationwide.
Fall 2022 Fall 2031 PK-12 % Change
State
PK - 12 Projected Decline 2022-2031
USA 49,618,464 46,889,600 -2,728,864 -5.5%
CT 513,513 465,200 -48,313 -9.4%
ME 173,853 162,900 -10,953 -6.3%
MA 923,349 857,100 -66,249 -7.2%
NH 168,909 156,600 -12,309 -7.3%
RI 137,449 127,900 -9,549 -6.9%
VT 83,654 77,300 -6,354 -7.6%
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics,
Enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by region, state,
and jurisdiction: Selected years, fall 1990 through fall 2031, Table 203.20,
Report Generated Dec. 2023, NESDEC 2.8.24
Although most New England Districts are seeing a decline in the number of births, NESDEC's
experience indicates that the impact on enrollment varies from District to District. Almost half of New
England Districts have been growing in PK-12 enrollment, and a similar number are declining (often in
rural areas), with the other Districts remaining stable.
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Projection Methodology and Reliability
PROJECTION METHODOLOGY
Cohort component (survival) technique is a frequently used method of preparing enrollment forecasts. NESDEC uses this method, but modifies it in order to
move away from forecasts that are wholly computer- or formula-driven. Such modification permits the incorporation of important, current district-specific
demographic information into the generation of enrollment forecasts (such as in/out-migration of students, resident births, HUD-reported building permits,
etc.). Percentages are calculated from the historical enrollment data to determine a reliable percentage of increase or decrease in enrollment between any
two grades. For example, if 100 students enrolled in Grade 1 in 2023-24 increased to 104 students in Grade 2 in 2024-25, the percentage of survival would be
104%, or a ratio of 1.04. Ratios are calculated between each pair of grades or years in school over several recent years.
After study and analysis of the historical ratios, and based upon a reasonable set of assumptions regarding births, migration rates, retention rates, etc.,
ratios most indicative of future growth patterns are determined for each pair of grades. The ratios thus selected are applied to the present enrollment
statistics to project into future years. The ratios are the key factors in the reliability of the projections, assuming validity of the data at the starting point.
RELIABILITY OF ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
Projections can serve as useful guides to school administrators for educational planning. Enrollment projections are more reliable in Years #1-3 in the future
and less reliable in the “out-years.” Projections four to ten years out may serve as a guide to future enrollments and are useful for planning purposes, but
they should be viewed as subject to change given the likelihood of potential shifts in underlying assumptions/trends, such as student migration, births as
they relate to Kindergarten enrollment, and other factors.
Projections that are based upon the children who already are in the district (the current K-12 population only) will be the most reliable. The second level of
reliability will be for those children already born into the community but not yet old enough to be in school. The least reliable category is the group for
which an estimate must be made to predict the number of births, thereby adding additional uncertainty. See these three multi-colored groupings on the
“Projected Enrollment" tab.
Annual updates allow for early identification of recent changes in historical trends. When the actual enrollment in a grade is significantly different (higher or
lower) from the projected number, it is important (yet difficult) to determine whether this is a one-year aberration or whether a new trend may have begun. In
light of this possibility, NESDEC urges all school districts to have updated enrollment forecasts developed by NESDEC each October. This service is
available at no cost to affiliated school districts.
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