How wages, Social Security benefits, and town spending have changed over the past two decades
Discussions about town spending often come down to one simple question: is the budget growing faster than residents' ability to pay?
This page puts five trend lines on the same chart so you can answer that for yourself. Wage growth (Connecticut median household income) and Social Security benefits (cumulative annual COLA) represent two ways household income has changed. Inflation (CPI-U) tells you how the cost of everything else has moved. And Colchester's total adopted budget, education budget, and town-side budget show what local government spending has done in the same window.
Every line is indexed to 100 in FY 2007-08 (the earliest year for which we have all six series). Numbers above 100 mean cumulative growth since the base year. This is a comparison page, not a calculator — there are no inputs, just the data.
All series indexed to 100 in FY 07-08. Use the buttons to focus the comparison.
Sources: Colchester adopted budget books (FY 07-08 → FY 24-25) · CT median household income — U.S. Census Bureau via FRED MEHOINUSCTA646N · Social Security COLAs — SSA.gov · CPI-U — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Each tile shows total cumulative growth from FY 2007-08 through FY 2024-25 (or latest year with data). "Real" rows are inflation-adjusted using CPI-U.
Annual % change in Colchester total budget, CT median income, Social Security COLA, and CPI inflation. Years where SS COLA and CPI exceeded budget growth (green band) are years residents' incomes generally kept up; years where the budget grew faster than both (red band) are tighter on household budgets.
Sources: Colchester adopted budgets · CT median household income (FRED MEHOINUSCTA646N) · Social Security COLAs (SSA.gov) · CPI-U (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics).
Two separate y-axes so both series fit on one chart. Green line (left axis): CT median household income — the dollar amount a typical CT household earns. Blue bars (right axis): Colchester's total adopted budget. Watch whether the bars and the green line move together or diverge.
Statewide Connecticut median household income from the U.S. Census Bureau via FRED. Colchester's median is typically 20-30% higher in absolute dollars, but the growth pattern tracks the state closely.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau / FRED series MEHOINUSCTA646N · Colchester adopted budget books FY07-08 through FY24-25
Approach 1 — per-capita allocation. Each resident's "share" of the Colchester budget = total adopted budget ÷ town population. Below, that per-resident dollar amount is expressed as a percentage of typical household income. Two denominators are shown: the solid line uses CT statewide median household income (FRED MEHOINUSCTA646N, ACS 1-year); the dashed line uses Colchester's own ACS 5-year median income (Census B19013), which runs ~25% higher in level and grew ~+34% over 2009–2024 vs. statewide ~+53%. The Colchester-specific view is what residents actually earn. Caveat: per-capita is a simplistic average — kids, retirees, and renters don't pay property tax directly, so this overstates the cost on non-property-tax-payers and understates it on homeowners. See the next two sections for sharper alternatives.
Population: U.S. Census Bureau decennial & ACS estimates indexed to 15,750 baseline. Colchester median household income: Census ACS 5-year B19013_001E (county-subdivision 09-011-15910 / 09-180-15910), pulled 2026-05-10 via the Census Data API.
Approach 2 — the mill rate calculation. Most direct measure of homeowner burden. Each year: median single-family sale price × 0.7 (CT assessment ratio) × mill rate ÷ 1,000 = the property tax bill on a typical Colchester home. Divide that by typical household income and you get the share required to cover that bill. Two denominators are shown: the solid line uses CT statewide median income (the apples-to-apples view across CT); the dashed line uses Colchester's own ACS 5-year median income, which is what local homeowners actually earn. Local income grew slower than the state since 2009, so the burden on Colchester homeowners measured against their own income grew slightly more than the statewide-deflated version suggests. Watch the 2012 and 2022 revaluation years — the bill stays roughly flat by design (assessments rise, mill rate falls).
Sources: Colchester adopted budgets (mill rates) · CT OPM Real Estate Sales (median home prices) · CT statewide income from FRED MEHOINUSCTA646N (ACS 1-year) · Colchester median income from Census ACS 5-year B19013_001E.
The two views above, side by side. Both lines are measured the same way — a dollar cost as a share of CT statewide median household income — so they sit on one axis. Green is the per-resident view (Approach 1): the whole budget divided evenly across every resident. Red is the homeowner view (Approach 2): the property tax bill on a median-priced Colchester home. They move in opposite directions. The reason is the denominator: the budget grew +33.5% while median home prices rose about +60%, so the bill on a typical home claimed a growing share of income even as the budget's per-resident cost eased. Both calculations are correct — they answer different questions.
Per-resident: total adopted budget ÷ population, ÷ CT median income (FRED MEHOINUSCTA646N). Median home: median sale price × 0.7 × mill rate ÷ 1,000, ÷ CT median income. Same source data as the two charts above; this view simply overlays them.
A property tax is a tax on what a home is worth, but it is paid out of what the owner earns. Those are two different things, so the burden is simply the ratio between them. When home values grow faster than incomes, that ratio rises almost by definition — the tax is anchored to an asset that is climbing faster than the cash used to pay it.
Over the 18 years the tax bill on a median Colchester home roughly doubled, while CT median income grew only about +55%. The bill outran income, so it now claims a larger share of a typical paycheck. The chart below shows why the bill doubled: it is the product of two things that both rose — the median home value (about +60%) and the mill rate (about +25%). Multiplied together (1.60 × 1.25) they give the roughly +100% jump in the bill. The dashed line marks general inflation (CPI), and the green bar is income.
How much of this is just inflation? Most of it. General prices rose about +51% over the period (CPI-U), so a bill that merely kept pace with inflation would have risen by about half on its own. The dashed line on the chart marks that baseline; the dollar bars rising above it outpaced inflation. Their real, above-inflation growth — smaller than the visible gap, which is measured in percentage points, not real growth — works out to about +32% for the tax bill, +6% for home values, and +2% for income — while the budget the town actually spends fell roughly 12% in real terms (the +33.5% nominal increase trailed the +51% in prices; see the "Real" tab on the first chart). So the real, above-inflation rise in a homeowner's bill is not coming from the town spending more in real dollars. It comes from two things: home values rising a little faster than inflation, and — the larger piece — the local property-tax share of the budget climbing as state aid stayed flat (next two sections). Adjusting for inflation separates the part that is simply the cost of money changing over those 18 years from the part that reflects a genuine shift in who pays.
The common objection: Connecticut revalues every five years and the process is roughly revenue-neutral — so shouldn't a higher home value be cancelled by a lower mill rate? A revaluation only redistributes a fixed levy across the town; it does not shrink the levy. The total to be raised is set by the budget's local-funding needs, not by home values. So rising values do not lower anyone's total bill — they shift the load toward whichever properties appreciated most. Homes appreciated, and homes are about 74% of Colchester's grand list, so homeowners as a class absorbed the shift. The mill rate did not fall to offset values because the levy itself grew about +61% over the period (the budget grew +33.5%, but state ECS aid fell (about $13.0M → $12.0M, −7% nominal), so the locally-funded share climbed from 60% to 73% — see the next two sections). The effect is sharpest for fixed-income retirees: home values rose +60%, but Social Security COLAs tracked CPI (about +51%), so the bill outgrows the income meant to cover it.
Growth figures computed FY 2007-08 → FY 2024-25 from the same series used above: median sale price (CT OPM Real Estate Sales), mill rate (Colchester adopted budgets), tax bill = price × 0.7 × mill rate ÷ 1,000, and CT median household income (FRED MEHOINUSCTA646N). Inflation baseline and real (inflation-adjusted) figures use cumulative CPI-U (BLS annual averages), the same series used elsewhere on this page. Residential share of the grand list (~74%): CT OPM Net Grand List by Town (dataset webp-fgt3 on data.ct.gov), residential real estate ÷ total net taxable grand list, FY 2024-25 — see the grand-list chart below.
Approach 4 — the locally-funded share. Property taxes are only one revenue stream — Colchester also gets state aid (ECS, town aid road, PILOT), federal pass-throughs, and miscellaneous fees. The line below shows the share of the total budget that's actually paid by Colchester taxpayers via the property tax levy. The trend: levy share climbed from 60.36% (FY 07-08) to 72.66% (FY 24-25) — a +12.30 pp shift over 18 years. Decomposition (F8 review): ECS lag accounts for ~68% of the shift (8.43 pp); other non-tax revenue (federal pass-throughs, PILOT, fees, other state aid) lag accounts for the other ~32% (3.87 pp). Colchester's budget grew +33.5% over the period — below CPI and below the BEA state-and-local government deflator (+59.6%) — so the levy-share rise reflects non-tax revenue stalling, not local-budget escalation.
Sources: Colchester adopted budget books — Amount to be Raised by Taxation line · OPM grand list × mill rate cross-check.
Approach 6 — split trend. Connecticut applies one mill rate to all property, but the share each segment contributes to the grand list determines the share of the tax pie it pays. The chart below shows the percentage of Colchester's grand list each year that comes from residential real estate, commercial & industrial real estate, motor vehicles, and business personal property — every column adds up to 100%. If the residential slice grows over time, residents are bearing a larger share of the load; if commercial and personal-property slices grow, the load is shifting onto businesses. Hover any segment to see the underlying dollar value.
Sources: CT OPM Net Grand List by Town, dataset webp-fgt3 on data.ct.gov · pre-2011 figures estimated by category ratio from FY10-11 baseline.
Two separate y-axes so both series fit on one chart. Orange line (left axis): reconstructed Social Security monthly benefit assuming a $1,000 starting benefit in 2007 and applying each year's official COLA. A retiree on this benefit would now be receiving about $0/month. Blue bars (right axis): Colchester's total adopted budget. Notable COLA bumps to watch in the orange line: 5.8% in 2009, zero in 2010-2011 and 2016, and 8.7% in 2023.
Sources: SSA.gov COLA series — ssa.gov/oact/cola/colaseries.html · Colchester adopted budget books FY07-08 through FY24-25
The honest answer is nuanced. Each line below is indexed to 100 in FY 2007-08. Social Security (orange) grew via cumulative COLAs. Total adopted budget (blue) tracks slightly below SS over the full window — the town did not outspend retiree income at the headline level. Property tax levy (red) — what local taxpayers actually pay — outpaced SS, because state aid lagged and a larger share of the budget had to be raised locally. Tax bill on the median single-family home (purple) outpaced SS by the widest margin, because home prices rose faster than commercial values, shifting more of the levy onto residential property. The squeeze on fixed-income homeowners isn't in the budget; it's in the share of the budget paid by property tax and the share of property tax paid by residential.
Sources: SSA.gov COLAs · Colchester adopted budget books (totals, mill rates, Amount to be Raised by Taxation) · CT OPM Real Estate Sales (median single-family sale price).
Approach: retiree-only stress case. Numerator is the same property tax bill used in the "as a share of household income" chart above (median single-family sale price × 0.7 × mill rate ÷ 1000). Denominator is annual Social Security income for a retiree whose benefit started at $1,000/month in 2007 and grew only by official COLAs — about $18.2K/year by 2024. This is an indexed scenario, not the typical Colchester retiree (real benefits vary by work history), but the trajectory is what matters: the burden on a homeowner whose only income is COLA-indexed climbs sharply because the tax bill grew much faster than the COLA index.
Sources: SSA.gov COLA series · Colchester adopted budgets (mill rates) · CT OPM Real Estate Sales (median home prices).
Intuitive units. Each bar = annual property tax bill on the median single-family home ÷ reconstructed monthly Social Security benefit (same $1,000-in-2007 scenario as above). In FY 2007-08 the bill cost about 4 months of SS; by FY 2024-25 it costs over 5 months. The annual tax bill roughly doubled while SS COLAs grew the benefit by only ~51%.
Sources: SSA.gov COLA series · Colchester adopted budgets (mill rates) · CT OPM Real Estate Sales (median home prices).
When Colchester revalues properties (orange bars), assessments jump and the mill rate drops. Home sale prices show what the market was actually doing — the 2021 revaluation captured the post-pandemic price surge.
Orange bars mark revaluation years. Home prices are median Colchester single-family sale amounts from CT OPM Real Estate Sales (data.ct.gov dataset 5mzw-sjtu). Listyears 2011, 2016, and 2021 are absent from the OPM dataset (no Sales Ratio is published for the listyear immediately preceding each FY 12-13/FY 17-18/FY 22-23 revaluation); for those three calendar years the value shown is the median of records whose daterecorded falls in the calendar year (n=109/142/206), which captures Jan–Sep sales of that year.
Total Budget = Colchester adopted budget (town + education). CT Income = state median household income. SS Benefit = reconstructed monthly benefit assuming a $1,000 starting benefit in 2007. * = revaluation year.
Wage / income growth: Connecticut statewide median household income from the U.S. Census Bureau, accessed via FRED series MEHOINUSCTA646N. The state median is used for trend comparison; Colchester's level is typically higher but the growth rate is similar.
Social Security COLA: Official annual cost-of-living adjustments from SSA.gov. The COLA labeled "year X" takes effect with benefits payable for December of year X. To produce a comparable index, we start with $1,000/month in 2007 and apply each year's COLA in sequence. The resulting "SS benefit index" answers: if your benefit grew only by official COLAs, how much would it have grown over the period?
Inflation (CPI-U): Annual CPI-U rates from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (calendar-year averages). Used both as a comparison line and to deflate budget/income series into "real" (inflation-adjusted) growth in the Real tab.
Town budget: Adopted Colchester budgets FY 2007-08 through FY 2024-25, broken into the town-side appropriation and the Board of Education appropriation. The total is the sum.
Mill rates & home prices: Mill rates extracted from each year's adopted budget book. Median single-family home sale prices from the CT OPM Real Estate Sales dataset (data.ct.gov, `5mzw-sjtu`), filtered to Colchester residential single-family transactions. The OPM dataset does not publish a listyear for the year immediately preceding each Colchester revaluation (FY 12-13, FY 17-18, FY 22-23), so listyears 2011, 2016, and 2021 are absent; for those three calendar years the median is computed from records whose daterecorded field falls in the calendar year (n=109 / n=142 / n=206 — Jan–Sep coverage). For 2024 the value reflects partial-year data because the dataset's most recent listyear is 2023.
What this page does NOT do: This page does not estimate a property tax bill for any individual home, project future taxes, or model what would happen to your wallet under different scenarios. The earlier version of this page included that functionality; it was removed to focus on the comparison between income trends and town spending.